Global Trade Rebounds Better Than Expected(1)
On October 4, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest issue of "Trade Statistics and Prospects." The report pointed out that in the first half of 2021, global economic activity further recovered, and commodity trade exceeded the peak before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Based on this, WTO economists raised their forecasts for global trade in 2021 and 2022. In the context of the overall strong growth of global trade, there are significant differences between countries, and some developing regions are far below the global average.
According to the WTO’s current forecast, global merchandise trade volume will grow by 10.8% in 2021, higher than the organization’s forecast of 8.0% in March this year, and will grow by 4.7% in 2022. As global merchandise trade approaches the long-term trend before the epidemic, growth should slow. Supply-side issues such as semiconductor shortages and port backlogs may put pressure on the supply chain and put pressure on trade in specific regions, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on global trade volume.
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