Fears of slowing global trade growth(1)

Data released by the World Trade Organization a few days ago showed that the growth momentum of global trade in goods weakened at the beginning of this year, following a strong rebound in trade in goods in 2021. The latest "Global Trade Update" report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development recently also pointed out that global trade growth will reach a record high in 2021, but this growth momentum is expected to slow down.

Looking forward to the trend of global trade this year, analysts generally believe that factors such as the strength of the world economic recovery, the demand situation of major economies, the global epidemic situation, the restoration of global supply chains, and geopolitical risks will all have an impact on global trade.

Growth momentum will weaken

The latest issue of the "Barometer of Trade in Goods" released by the WTO showed that the global trade in goods sentiment index was below the benchmark of 100 at 98.7, down slightly from the reading of 99.5 in November last year.

An update from UNCTAD predicts that global trade growth momentum will slow in the first quarter of this year, with trade in goods and services likely to experience only modest growth. The sharp increase in international trade in 2021 is mainly due to higher commodity prices, the easing of epidemic restrictions and a strong recovery in demand from the economic stimulus package. International trade is expected to return to normal this year as the aforementioned factors are likely to subside.