Multiple downside risks weigh on global economic recovery in 2022(1)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the updated content of the "World Economic Outlook Report" on the 25th, predicting that the world economy will grow by 4.4% in 2022, down 0.5 percentage points from the forecast released in October last year. The report said that risks to global economic growth have increased, which may drag down the pace of global economic recovery this year.

The report also lowered the 2022 economic growth forecast for developed economies, emerging market and developing economies, which are expected to grow by 3.9% and 4.8% respectively. The report believes that due to the widespread spread of the mutated new coronavirus Omicron strain, many economies have re-restricted the movement of people, rising energy prices, and supply chain disruptions have led to higher-than-expected and wider-spread inflation, and the global economy in 2022. The situation is more fragile than previously expected.

The IMF believes that three major factors will directly affect the global economic recovery in 2022.

First of all, the new crown epidemic continues to drag on global economic growth. Right now, the rapid spread of the mutated Omicron strain of the novel coronavirus has exacerbated labor shortages in many economies, while supply disruptions caused by persistently sluggish supply chains will continue to weigh on economic activity.