WTO: Global goods trade growth momentum

The data released by the World Trade Organization on the 21st showed that after the strong rebound in the 2021 cargo trade, the growth of global goods trade increases in the early 2022.

The latest "Cargo Trade Barometer" released by the WTO has shown that the global trade trading exponent is below the reference point 100, which is 98.7, which is slightly declined in November last year. However, the index also shows signs of bottoming, indicating that future trade-in growth may be higher than expected.

The WTO believes that in addition to the supply chain continues to be interrupted, the exponential falling part attributes epidemic prevention measures to deal with a variant new crown virus O'K. Despite the future new champlide to make a threat to economic activities and global trade, some countries choose to relax epidemic prevention policies, or will stimulate trade in the next few months.

Data show that compared with 2020 years ago, in 2021 trade volume increased by 11.9%, higher than the 10.8% predictive growth rate of the organization. However, trade growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 has been slowed down, which will enable annual trade growth to approximate the prediction of WTO.

The WTO pointed out that the current main port container throughput is stable at a high level, but the problem of port congestion continues; although global delivery time is gradually shortened, it is not enough for many manufacturers and consumers.

According to the preparation rules of the global cargo trade boom index, the value 100 is the reference point. If a certain index is 100, it means that global trade growth is expected in compliance with medium trend. The index is greater than 100 indicates that global trade in the quarter is higher than expected, and it shows that global trade growth is lower than expected.

WTO first released global trade boom index in July 2016, through the trade statistics of major economies, the short-term development of the current world trade provides early signals, providing a more timely international trade for trade policy makers and business communities. information.