Epidemic, Fragmentation, Inflation(1)

Epidemic, fragmentation, inflation(1)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the updated content of the World Economic Outlook Report on the 27th, maintaining the global economic growth forecast for 2021 at 6%, but warning that the recovery "fault" between different economies is widening. Analysts believe that repeated epidemics, fragmented recovery, and rising inflation have become a triple risk that must be overcome for the sustained recovery of the world economy.

Repeated epidemics

The repeated new crown epidemic is still the biggest uncertain factor affecting the recovery of the world economy. Affected by the rapid spread of the mutated new coronavirus delta strain, the number of infections in many countries has risen again recently. At the same time, the vaccination coverage rate in many countries is still low, casting a shadow over the fragile global economic recovery.

The IMF pointed out in the report that the global economy is expected to grow by 6% and 4.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The premise of this forecast is that countries adopt more targeted epidemic prevention and control measures and vaccination work continues to advance, and the global new crown The spread of the virus will drop to a low level before the end of 2022. If the epidemic prevention and control fails to meet expectations, the global economic growth rate this year and next will also be significantly lower than expected.