Fears of slowing global trade growth(2)

Lu Yan, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics of the Academy of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with a reporter from the International Business Daily that according to the WTO report, the global merchandise trade volume will increase by 10.8% in 2021, which is achieved on the basis of the low base in 2020. A relatively strong rebound. Behind the strong growth of global trade, the trend of world trade is not stable. There are significant differences in the trade recovery in different regions, and some developing regions are far behind the global average. In addition, poor international logistics and supply chain bottlenecks also have certain interference and constraints on the recovery of international trade. Compared with trade in goods, global trade in services remains sluggish, especially in industries related to tourism and leisure.

"The downside risks of global trade are currently prominent, and the growth momentum of global trade has slowed down in the first quarter. Affected by many factors such as political economy, it is expected that the growth of global trade in goods this year will be weaker than in 2021." Lu Yan said.

still affected by multiple factors

The WTO believes that although the future epidemic will still pose a threat to economic activity and global trade, some countries choose to relax epidemic prevention policies, which may stimulate trade growth in the next few months. The WTO also pointed out that the current container throughput of major ports in the world is stable at a high level, but the problem of port congestion still persists; although the global delivery time is gradually shortening, it is not fast enough for many producers and consumers.